15 Predictions for the Big 10 in 2018
- Devin Kurzhals
- Aug 14, 2018
- 13 min read
Updated: Aug 18, 2018
We are less than a month away from the opening of the College Football Season. Not only are most of us drooling with anticipation for our team this year, but we can all expect another crazy season in 2018.
#15 - Maryland Will finish lower than Rutgers, but will not finish in Last Place between both divisions.
Some Terps fans may read this and already know why I am making this prediction. Last year I made the bold prediction that Maryland would completely upset the Long Horns for their opening Game. However, the hype was short lived due to injuries. Almost a year later and a healthy squad better, the coaching staff situation is in complete question. I predicted that Coach Durkin's exit from Michigan and move to Maryland, in 2016, would bring Maryland back from the damaging move to the Big 10 in 2014. I predicted them to be competitive and be a darkhorse in the East by 2018-2019. The recent developing story of the the Death of a player lead to the paid leave of multiple coaches, and consequently a very likely death sentence to the success of Terp's season. If Durkin and his staff are able to return, expect there to still be some significant exit transfers at the close of the 2018 season. Nothing against Rutgers, they deserve credit for showing flashes of improvement last year.
#14 - Indiana is no longer a Joke, and will have a .500 season.
It wasn't that long ago that Indiana was the laughing stock of the Big 10, in fact they had been the scheduled homecoming game for many years for opposing Big 10 schools. Last year Indiana was the best first quarter team, maybe even first half team, in the Big 10. They scared many of their opponents, but could not find a way to finish. Additionally 4 of their 7 losses came by an average of only 6.5 points. If there is such a thing as a good loss, these would be the definition. The Quarterback situation has been fixed, and they will be what I call the Iowa of the East (The sleeper that can destroy the top dog, even in an average season). Two years in a row Indiana vs. Michigan has come down to the wire. Even if Michigan still hasn't met exact fan expectations, they are not a terrible team. Indiana was also with in striking distance of Ohio State until roughly 5 minutes left in the 3rd quarter. Pay attention to Peyton Ramsey, who could be a contender for best QB in the East. He posted a 127.9 QB rating in 2017. He will continue to improve on the Hoosiers journey to upend at least one powerhouse East team. Also look out for WR Luke Timian. Out of Big 10 receivers with 100+ catches, his 66% catch rate was the highest in the conference. This may be a pipe dream, considering a 2-32 record against the Big 4 in the East, but that history combined with statistical probability, could make this year very successful. The defense is still questionable with key exits, but will play well enough to take some pressure off the Defense. Tom Allen also brought a lot of recruiting prospects with him from his time at USF. The most interesting part of all this is the QB competition going on in Bloomington, which should push Ramsey even more. Fans should expect a 50/50 record from the Hoosiers this year overall. According to ESPN, the Hoosiers have one of the top 10 easiest non-conference schedules as well, which should help them to a better record, and a huge morale boost going into 4th game at home against the Michigan State Spartans. Also, Indiana did receive a grad transfer in April that could help their cause.
#13 - The West will be just as competitive as the East in 2018 (Sorry Illini) #ExpectChaos in the #B10West.
Wisconsin, Iowa, Purdue, Northwestern, Nebraska, Minnesota. two to three years ago, that list would have been Wisconsin, Nebraska, and maybe Iowa. The West is no longer in the shadow of the stacked Eastern Division. Overall this is great for the conference as a whole, and easily could, arguably, solidify the Big 10 as the most competitive conference in college football. But there are still the cupcakes that just can't break their trends (Rutgers, Maryland, Illinois). Minnesota is probably the most questionable team on my list of 6, but we should all expect a competitive program, when it's run by P.J. Fleck. Fleck may still be one season away from figuring it out, but after watching Minnesota's spring game, he has brought a lot of fun and hype to a program that was dead (outside of a drought-breaking win against Michigan in 2014). Minnesota also lost games against Maryland, MSU and Iowa by an average of only 5.7 points. They also competed with a newly revived Purdue team until roughly 2-3 minutes left in the game, but came up short (the score was not reflective of the Gophers Performance). Iowa is always the ultimate sleeper team, and the blowout against Ohio State last year proved it. Don't forget that Iowa also has been the most consistent team in the over the last decade, and the most stable and veterened coaching staff across the entire conference. We can safely assume, for now, that Scott Frost will turn the Nebraska program around, and revive college football's most tired, but loyal fan base. Northwestern does not have to play the Buckeyes or the Nittany Lions, but they will welcome Michigan and Notre Dame into Evanston and play Michigan State in East Lansing. This is setup for a nice high record by season's end, and possibly a higher than average bowl game. Northwestern is also one of the scariest teams to play now, with such a dynamic play style, top tier smart players and the return of Clayton Thorson. Purdue will also continue their success with so much returning talent and Jeff Brohm who went well beyond expectations for his first year. With so many teams competing both on the field and in recruiting, it is hard to imagine that anyone will go undefeated in conference play for either division.
#12 - #ExpectChaos around the #Big4 in the East (MSU, OSU, PSU, UoM).
Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan State. Those 4 teams have easily been the most consistently competitive over the course of the last two seasons (maybe even nation wide). Considering my analysis of Indiana at #14, it is safe to assume that they could be the Dark Horse to throw a cork screw in the whole situation, along with other more recent contenders like Purdue, and Northwestern.
Key Conference Games for the East Big 4
Michigan: at Nebraska, at NW, host Wisconsin, at MSU, host PSU, Host Indiana, at Ohio State.
Michigan State: at Indiana, host NW, at PSU, host Michigan, host Purdue, host Ohio State, at Nebraska
Ohio State: at PSU, host Indiana, at Purdue, host (a very bitter and newly revived) Nebraska, at MSU, host Michigan
Penn State: host OSU, host MSU, at Indiana, host Iowa, at Michigan, host Wisconsin
#11 - 2 Big 10 teams will make it to the College football playoff, and they will most likely to have played each other in the regular season.
Take your pick, OSU, Michigan, MSU, Wisconsin, PSU. However ESPN has ranked Wisconsin #2 weakest non-conference schedule, so expect that to impact their post season placement (even with an unlikely undefeated season). There isn't much to say about the other 4, as they all will have the resume to deserve a playoff berth, as long as they post a double digit in the win column. They all play at least 3 of the other teams on this list. Michigan and Penn State will play all 4 of the other teams listed.
#10 - Don't be surprised if Wisconsin doesn't make the Big 10 Championship game, or the Playoffs.
At Iowa, hosting Nebraska, at Michigan, at Northwestern, at Penn State and at Purdue. Regardless of getting out of a game against the Buckeyes this year, they might have one of the toughest conference schedules, which they will need on their resume because of their very weak non-conference schedule including home games against Western Kentucky, New Mexico and BYU. Wisconsin will have to win out to preserve their argument to get into the playoffs #dejavu2018.
#9 - If, and only if, Urban Meyer preserves his job, can the Buckeyes hope to build on their previous success.
If you haven't heard the news surrounding Urban Meyer, I will sum it up for you. Urban Meyer did not learn a single thing from other instances of scandal in college football or college sports. While the Penn State Sandusky scandal is not the same, the handling of each instance is similar. It comes down to the fact that football coaches turned a blind eye to injustice. I will not say anything more about it, because most reports and opinions are purely speculative and the situation it self is very foggy and unclear. If Urban Meyer can return, they stand a very good chance of winning the Big 10. They will not have a terrible season, as defined by most people below the Meyer, Saban bar. But if there is one thing that Urban Meyer hates more than anything, it's losing (we know this going all the way back to his days at Utah). Recall what Ohio State did to Nebraska last year. You might not remember, and some buckeyes might have overlooked that win as well. What we saw was a empty Husker stadium by half time, a completely wounded program, the worst loss since 1949, and the first look at the most damaged Nebraska Fan Base (possibly ever). Coach Frost is a Cornhusker Football Alumni, and although he didn't coach at Nebraska last year, you knew he had been a loyal alumni fan because he took the HC job starting this year. Add that to his resume at a UCF. You can expect a game similar to the 2017 Iowa vs. OSU, if the huskers can harness that lesson and use it to their advantage.
#8 - Harbaugh will figure out his offensive problems, and make the Big 10 Championship (assuming that Urban Meyer is on his way out or suspended for the season).
The departure of Tim Drevno was a relief for fans and the Michigan Football program. Last season Michigan was 16th nationally, and 2nd in the Big Ten for field position. However, they were 109th nationally and 10th in the Big Ten for efficiency. Most of that can be attributed to a stale, lame duck of a dynamic offense. There were dive plays on 3rd and 15, there were pass plays on 2nd and short in the redzone. That doesn't help, when there were so many sporadic offensive personal changes on the field. Michigan's rank in field position was the only top stat for them on that side of the ball. They ranked 69th or lower for efficiency, explosiveness, finishing drives and turnovers. The arrival of Shae Patterson and the continued competitiveness of Brandon Peters will create a QB battle that will not be won until September 1st. The addition of Jim McElwain on the coaching staff will also help to smooth out the issues on offense. The defensive will not only be just as good, they will be the best in the conference, and one of the nation's top units, with Coach DC Don Brown, DE Rashan Gary, DE Chase Winovich and LB Devin Bush all returning. Ohio state will be right there with them, with the return of Nick Bosa, one of the top players in all of College Football. One thing is for sure, with a very down year for recruiting in Ann Arbor, Harbaugh needs to get ahold of a near perfect season to ensure a better incoming recruiting class for 2019.
#7 - Penn State will Struggle, Miss the Big 10 Championship and the Playoff. Consider this a building year.
Week 2 Penn State will visit Pitt. Last year Franklin made a comment, that was as instigating as the "Little Brother" comment by Mike Hart from Michigan. Franklin said, in reference to their win over Pitt, "Last year [2016] for their win it was like the Super Bowl, but for us this was just like beating Akron." Pitt is in the ACC, which is no joke of a conference. In fact the ACC might be the 2nd or 3rd most competitive conference in the country behind the Big 10 and maybe the Pac 12. Think about the losses that Penn State had last year. They lost to the Buckeyes by 1, and the Spartans by 3. He made comments about both of those teams as well. Notably playing dumb when asked about his opponent next week (Ohio State). The departure of Barkley and the less talked about departure of DaeSean Hamilton will be pretty Crippling to an offense who will lean heavily on Trace McSorley, a work horse who is built like, and plays similar to Baker Mayfield. Expect the Penn State defense to take some steps forward to take some pressure off of McSorley. Also expect at least 2-3 conference losses against either Wisconsin, Michigan, OSU or MSU. Most likely the loses will come against MSU and Michigan. Pitt might also have the juice to win against Penn State.
#6 - Michigan State is Back in the fold, but expect two losses at home and one loss on the road.
Michigan State opens 2018 by visiting Utah State, a team that has made a bowl game 6 times in the last 7 years. MSU hosts a improved Purdue and visits an improved Indiana squad. They also host Northwestern, Michigan, Ohio State; while going on the road against Arizona State, Penn State and Nebraska.
#5 - By crazy circumstances, expect Michigan State's post season status to come down to the wire in the last 3 weeks of the season...Again.
It wouldn't be modern Big 10 football without all the "what if?" scenarios the last 4 weeks of the regular season. This year will be no different. The difference-maker for the Spartans will be finishing drives, which they ranked 99th nationally and 12th in the Big 10, in 2017. Their efficiency was also sub par at 81st nationally only 7th in the conference. Minnesota was ranked 6th, if you can believe that. RB L.J. Scott will need to make his senior season his best to take the step towards elite level status. QB Brian Lewerke was sacked 18 times in 2017, but he is still a preseason dark horse for the Heisman. Expect him to be on the ballot by season's end, if his line can protect him, and a healthy L.J. Scott can greatly increase his amount of successful plays.
#4 - The defining Big 10 West game will happen on August 30th.
Northwestern and Purdue will face off to start not only their conference schedule but it is the first game of the season for both teams. Both teams are predicted to be at or just above a .500 season, and both teams have the talent to be in the discussion for Big Ten West Championship berth. Key players for both sides on both teams will be tested early on, and set the tone for the rest of their season regardless of the final score of this game. Northwestern's all-time winningest QB Clayton Thorson will face a tough rush from a Purdue Defense that features returning LB Markus Bailey who had 89 tackles and 7 sacks in 2017. Likewise, Purdue's David Blough or whoever wins out the starting QB position will face a very efficient rush from a Wildcat defense featuring DE Joe Gaziano who led the Big 10 in sacks at 9. Both teams feature rising stars at the receiver position as well as returning WRs. Purdue landed Rondale Moore, who is the "highest-rated commitment for Purdue in 247Sports history." Northwestern Coach Pat Fitzgerald has confidence in WR Berkeley Holman's development from Redshirt Freshman, after an injury cut his true freshman debut short (according to Athalon Sports). What bolsters these teams is the passing and defensive rush, however the running game features backs for both teams who had 500+ yards in 2017. Purdue might hold the fight for rushing gains considering the number of more active running backs (similar to the system Jim Harbaugh employs at Michigan). Northwestern on the other hand puts their faith in one powerful running back.
#3 - Expect at least 1, if not 2 Big 10 Heisman candidates, and a whole slew of candidates for other awards, especially defensive awards.
Take your pick, MSU QB Brian Lewerke, Michigan QB Shae Patterson (now surrounded by good talent and coaching reforms including McElwain who has developed many good QB's), Wisc. RB Johnathan Taylor, Wisc. QB Alex Hornibrook, Purdue QB Elijah Sindelar, Northwestern QB Clayton Thorson, Neb. WR Stanley Morgan Jr., PSU QB Trace McSorley, OSU RB J.K. Dobbins, OSU QB Dwayne Haskins, Michigan RB Karan Higdon. That is just the pontential Heisman contenders, and not the other positional awards. I won't delve into the why defensive players dont make the cut, but it should be noted that Michigan DE Rashan Gary and OSU DE Nick Bosa are two of the most talented college football DEs since Joey Bosa, or even Jadeveon Clowney. Also defensively Minnesota LB Thomas Barber, Michigan DE Chase Winovich and Michigan LB Devin Bush should all be defensive award candidates for their respective position. Expect MSU WR Felton Davis III, PSU WR Juwan Johnson, Iowa WR Nick Easley, Minn. WR Tyler Johnson, and Northwestern WR Bennett Skowronek to at least be in the discussion for the Biletnikoff Award. On special teams there are a few Groza Award watchlist members Mich. K Quinn Nordin, Wisc. K Rafael Gaglianone, and OSU K Sean Nuernberger. All three kickers had over 90 points last total in 2017. For defensive backs Michigan returns CBs Lavert Hill and David Long; PSU Returns CB Amani Oruwariye; Northwestern returns CB Montre Hartage; MSU returns CB Josiah Scott, S David Dowell; OSU returns S Jordan Fuller, CB Jeffrey Okudah, Minnesota returns Antoine Winfield, Maryland returns Antoine Brooks, and Indiana Returns S Jonathan Crawford. It is very likely that Michigan could sweep all defensive awards, and completely fill the All Big 10 First-team as well. For the preseason the entire all defensive Big 10 first-team consists of 6 Michigan players, 3 Buckeyes, and 2 Badgers. With all this talent, the Big 10 might collectively be the most talented pool of defensive backfield players.
#2 - Iowa's most important game (and maybe the 2nd most important Big 10 non conference game) will not be a conference game, and it will determine their placement on the national stage; it will also compete with viewership numbers for "The Game," and could have a lasting effect on the way the Big 10's strength is viewed, especially the West Division.
The Hawkeyes play against their in-state rival for the second game of the year. As you know Iowa State was a top contender in the Big 12, and the game against the Hawkeyes will also be a defining moment for the strength of the Big 10. Last year the Hawkeyes beat the Cyclones in OT 44-41 on the Cyclones turf. They haven't forgotten. The Cyclones went on to beat No. 3 Oklahoma, No. 4 TCU, and No. 19 Memphis (in the #LibertyBowl), and Iowa went on to Beat Ohio State and Boston College (#PinstripeBowl) in stellar fashion, but came up just short in games against Penn State (L 19-21), Michigan State (L 10-17), Northwestern (L 10-17 OT), and Purdue (L 15-24). The only significant margin of loss happened against a talented Wisconsin team (L 14-38). Oklahoma's win against the Buckeyes early on was a huge dagger to the validity of the Big 10, but Oklahoma turned out to be the real deal, so the loss actually made the Big 10 still look good in the long run. According to CBS Iowa Land of 10 site, "the Iowa-Iowa State rivalry [is] more hate-filled than the Ohio State-Michigan [rivalry]" We know Iowa has the tools to be great. Between coaching stability and staff; what we learned about Iowa last year on November 4th, 2017, and their post season performance there should be no doubt as to why Iowa is great come the end of the 2018 season. If, like last year, the Hawkeyes can beat the Cyclones, and make a serious run for the Big 10 Championship, it could change the way people see the Big 10 (a lopsided powerful conference). This will be the 2nd most important non-conference game behind week 1 match up between Michigan and Notre Dame in South Bend. The Penn State at Pitt will the be the 3rd most crucial non-conference game for the Big 10.
#1 - All but 3 Big 10 teams will make a bowl.
It's simple, Illinois, Rutgers and Maryland will not get into a bowl this year. Barring some crazy season like 2007, its a safe bet to assume that these three teams will not make a bowl game. Of course this all depends on the development with the Maryland investigation, and whether or not we will see Durkin and his key staff members on the sidelines this season.
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